The economy is deflating fast and has been for a while, but hope is on the horizon, Bill Humphreys told a group of about 75 at the Lebanon Area Chamber of Commerce Forum Lunch on May 29 at the Samaritan Lebanon Community Hospital.

Humphreys, president and CEO of Citizens Bank, said he is confident the economy will turn around, but is unsure when that will happen.

"This is simply an economic downturn part of a cycle," he said. "We are going to work our way through it, I'm just not exactly sure when."

Humphreys began his career with US National Bank of Oregon in 1968 after graduating from Western Oregon University.

In 1982, Humphreys helped start Centennial Bank in Eugene where he served as vice president and loan administrator.

He then accepted a position as president and CEO of Newberg State Bank in Newberg and then similar positions with Juniper Bank and Columbia River Bank in Central Oregon.

In 1996, Humphreys joined Citizens Bank.

Humphreys said the failure of many large banks and the collapse of the housing market has only fueled the downturn.

"The housing market led us into this and it will have to be the housing market that leads us out," he said.

From 1994-2004, Humphreys said, the economy was thriving, which caused people to spend money they didn't have and build debt.

Humphreys said it's important to plan ahead when the economy turns around.

"Make a cash management plan and reduce debt as much as you can," he said. "Debt will not be your friend for the next three years."

Humphreys did offer a couple of predictions.

"The economy has been deflating rapidly but I think we're in for a round of inflation," he said. "There's some indication that at least the downturn part of this cycle is over. But there won't be any recovery until at least the second quarter of 2010."